Canada’s Energy Futures 2020 Supplement: Electricity
Total installed capacity by energy source – Evolving Scenario
Electricity’s share of end-use demand increases from approximately 16% currently to over 27% in 2050. In 2010, total capacity was 132 GW. In 2050, total capacity is projected to be 210 GW. Hydro generation will continue to be the largest source.
Increase in solar use
This graph shows total electricity capacity by fuel type from 2010 to 2050 in the Evolving Scenario. In 2010 total capacity was 131.8 GW and this increases to 210.8 GW in 2050.
This stacked area chart shows electricity generation by fuel type in the Evolving Scenario. It increases from 645 TW.h in 2019 to over 820 TW.h in 2050. Renewable and natural gas generation is added, while coal is phased out.
Total Generation by Energy Source – Evolving Scenario
In 2018, total generation was 644 TW.h. In 2050, total generation is projected to be 821 TW.h.
hydro in 2050
wind in 2050
Capacity is the maximum electric output a facility can produce. Generation is the amount of power actually produced. Generation facilities cannot operate at full capacity 100% of the time because of maintenance, unplanned outages, and other factors.
|Capacity in GW||2018||8.8||22.6||3.8||81.4||13.3||12.8||2.7||2.6|
|2050 Evolving Scenario||0.1||42.0||1.9||90.9||11.6||40.5||20.7||3.1|
|2050 Reference Scenario||0.6||38.2||2.1||89.4||11.1||24.9||8.6||3.1|
|Generation in TW.h||2018||50.8||66.1||5.7||382.1||95.0||31.9||3.0||9.4|
|2050 Evolving Scenario||0.1||67.9||1.6||457.9||96.1||165.1||23.3||10.0|
|2050 Reference Scenario||0.5||149.9||3.1||447.0||82.8||101.0||8.8||11.2|
This graph shows the total additions and retirements of electric generation capacity by 2050 in the Evolving Scenario and Reference Scenario, and breaks it down by fuel source. In the Evolving Scenario, these additions include 27.8 GW of wind, 19.4 GW of natural gas, 17.9 GW of solar, 9.5 GW of hydro, 0.5 GW of nuclear, and 0.5 GW of biomass. Retirements include 8.6 GW of coal, 1.8 GW of nuclear, and 1.9 GW of oil. In the Reference Scenario, these additions include 15.6 GW of natural gas, 12.2 GW of wind, 8.1 GW of hydro, 5.8 GW of solar, and 0.5 GW of biomass. Retirements include 8.2 GW of coal, 2.3 GW of nuclear, and 1.6 GW of oil.
Electrical Capacity Additions and Requirements
Over the projection period, the Evolving Scenario adds more electric capacity than the Reference Scenario, with the primary difference in wind and solar additions.
In both scenarios, retirements are led by the phasing out of traditional coal-fired power plants by 2030.
Simulated Hourly Electricity Generation in 2050 - Evolving Scenario
This panel of graphs shows the simulated hourly generation fuel mix for a randomly chosen day in summer and winter and provincial region, for 2050 in the Evolving Scenario. Manitoba, British Columbia, Quebec and Atlantic Canada are dominated by hydro, while Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario have a more varied fuel mix.
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