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Canada’s Energy Future 2020: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050 (EF2020) is the latest long-term energy outlook from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER). Like many activities of the CER, it builds on the 60 year history of the National Energy Board, which began releasing long-term projections in 1967.

The Energy Futures series explores how possible energy futures might unfold for Canadians over the long term. Energy Futures uses economic and energy models to make these projections. We base the projections on assumptions about future trends in technology, energy and climate policies, energy markets, human behaviour and the structure of the economy.

Introduction

Canada’s Energy Future 2020: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050 (EF2020) is the latest long-term energy outlook from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER). Like many activities of the CER, it builds on the 60 year history of the National Energy Board, which began releasing long-term projections in 1967
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Executive Summary

EF2020 is the first Energy Futures report to extend the projection period to 2050. EF2020 also introduces a new scenario, The Evolving Energy System Scenario (Evolving Scenario), to complement the traditional baseline projection in the Energy Futures series, the Reference Energy System Scenario (Reference Scenario). Finally, EF2020 explores what going beyond an evolving energy system could mean for Canada in the “Towards Net-Zero” section.
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Energy Supply and Demand in a Pandemic: Effects of COVID-19

The Energy Futures series includes long-term projections of the Canadian energy system. At the same time, the COVID-19 pandemic has created significant near-term uncertainty for Canadians, including energy supply and demand trends. Because of this, EF2020 includes more focus on the near term than is typical of the Energy Futures series.
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Scenarios and Assumptions

The EF2020 scenarios make a variety of assumptions about future trends that are necessary in making long-term projections. These include assumptions about domestic climate policies, rate of technological change, crude oil and natural gas markets (both domestic and global), major energy infrastructure, and future costs of new electricity generation capacity.
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Results

This section presents results of the EF2020 projections. The primary focus is the Evolving Scenario. These projections are not a prediction, but instead present possible future outcomes based on the assumptions described in the previous section.
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Towards Net-Zero

For Canada to meet its 2050 goals, the rate of energy transition will need to increase beyond levels shown in the Evolving Scenario. This section discusses the implications of going beyond the Evolving Scenario, and moving the energy system towards net-zero emissions. We first look at what net-zero means. Then, we focus on three diverse segments of Canada’s energy system: personal passenger vehicle transportation, oil sands, and remote and northern communities.
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Appendix A: Domestic Climate Policy

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Access and Explore Energy Futures Data

Energy Futures data is accessible in many different platforms including interactive data tables, machine readable files on OpenGov, and as part of online learning tools.
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About the CER

The Canada Energy Regulator is Canada’s independent national energy regulator. The CER is also charged with ensuring Canadians have access to and use energy information for knowledge, research and decision making.
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Notice: On 2 December 2020, a note for additional clarity was added to Figures ES.8 and R.12 in this PDF.

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